Tawaran Judi (Kahneman & Tversky)
Probabilitas menang (%)
50
Hadiah menang (Rp jt)
20
Kerugian kalah (Rp jt)
10
Lambda loss aversion (λ)
2,25
Analisis: Expected Value vs Utility (Prospect Theory)
Frame
Rumus
Nilai
Keputusan rasional
Expected Value
Rp 5 jt
p × win − (1−p) × loss
Utility (Prospect)
−Rp 6 jt
λ bobot kerugian
Risk Premium
Rp 11 jt
EV − utility gap
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