Bayesian Updater Startup

Prior awal P(S)

Founder ex-Gojek/Traveloka

Sinyal kuat tapi umum

P(E|S)=80% P(E|F)=35%

MAU tumbuh 30%/bln 3 bln

Traction terbukti

P(E|S)=75% P(E|F)=20%

Didukung Sequoia/East Ventures

Sinyal herding institusi

P(E|S)=70% P(E|F)=25%

Diliput Tech in Asia banyak

Publisitas, bukan fundamen

P(E|S)=60% P(E|F)=50%

Burn rate 80%/tahun

Risiko distres

P(E|S)=30% P(E|F)=70%

Pesaing kuat masuk pasar

Ancaman model bisnis

P(E|S)=40% P(E|F)=65%

Prior awal

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Pasca sinyal

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Sinyal aktif

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