🏗 KPBU Indonesia — Case Comparison
// Palapa Ring vs SPAM Umbulan vs Bandara Kertajati
Palapa Ring
TELECOM · BOT 15 thn
CapEx total:
Rp 7.78 T (3 paket)
Revenue:
AP murni
Demand risk:
Pemerintah
VGF:
Tidak ada
COD:
2018-2019
Status 2024:
Healthy
✓ HIGH SUCCESS
SPAM Umbulan
AIR MINUM · BOT 25 thn
CapEx total:
Rp 2.62 T
Revenue:
Bulk sale + VGF
Demand risk:
Off-taker PDAM
VGF:
Rp 818 M (31%)
COD:
2020-2021
Status 2024:
Off-take below target
⚠ MEDIUM-HIGH
Bandara Kertajati
TRANSPORT · BOT 25 thn
CapEx terminal:
~Rp 2.5 T
Revenue:
User pays
Demand risk:
Konsorsium
VGF:
Tidak ada
COD:
2018 (rolling)
Status 2024:
Underperform
✗ LOW (demand miss)
🎓 Cross-cutting Lessons (Apa yang Bisa Dipelajari)
Demand risk allocation
harus match dengan controllable. Kertajati gagal karena risk ke konsorsium tanpa kontrol akses tol.
AP scheme effective
untuk demand uncertain + social infrastructure. Palapa Ring contoh sukses.
VGF unlock proyek strategic
non-commercial. Tanpa VGF, SPAM Umbulan tidak terbangun.
Supporting infrastructure parallel
. Bandara butuh tol akses. SPAM butuh distribusi end-user.
Demand forecast conservative
+ downside stress test. Optimistic = stranded asset.
Multi-paket / phased
diversify risk untuk mega-project (Palapa Ring 3 paket).